Europe September 2021: Tesla Model 3 best-seller in market down -25.2%

 

Provisional data from ACEA shows a European market accelerating its fall in September at -25.2% year-on-year to just 972.723 units (EU+UK+EFTA), compared to a -18.1% drop in August. That’s over 325.000 units less than September 2020. The year-to-date volume is now up 6.9% on the same period in 2020 at 9.161.918 units but down -24.4% over the first nine months of pre-pandemic 2019. All big 5 markets fall heavily, with Spain (-15.7%) faring the “best” ahead of France (-20.5%), Germany (-25.7%), Italy (-32.7%) and the UK (-34.4%). Looking at the other, smaller markets, four of them swim upstream and manage a year-on-year lift: Cyprus (+18.1%), Norway (+15.7%), Iceland (+15.3%) and Estonia (+8.2%) with Greece (-7%), Slovenia (-7%), Switzerland (-8.4%) and Slovakia (-8.7%) containing their fall to the single digits. At the other end of the scale, Lithuania (-56.8%), Luxembourg (-27.6%) and Belgium (-26.4%) all struggle.

In the groups ranking, the VW Group (-29.7%), Stellantis (-30.4%) and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (-26.9%) all fall faster than the market and reduce their footprint. In contrast, Hyundai-Kia gains 6.9% to remain in 4th place above the BMW Group (-24.4%) and Toyota Group (-18%) resisting relatively well. Daimler (-48.1%) and Ford Motor (-46.7%) both implode. At the tail end of the Top 10, Tesla (+81.1%) breaks its volume record at an estimated 34.000 and Suzuki (-11%) contains its drop.

Brand-wise, Volkswagen (-28%) remains unreachable on top while Toyota (-18.5%) threepeats at a record 2nd place and now also holds this spot year-to-date, displacing Peugeot (-35.8%) down to #7 for the month. Renault (-30.1%) rallies back up three spots on August to #3 ahead of BMW (-16.8%) resisting well and down one rank on last month to #4. After Hyundai cracked the European Top 5 for the first time last month, it is now the turn of sister brand Kia (+8.1%) up four spots on August to #5 overall and now inside the YTD Top 10. Hyundai (+5.7%) is the only additional Top 14 brand in positive and ranks 6th for the month. Mercedes (-49.9%), Ford (-46.7%) and Audi (-31.3%) are all in difficulty in the remainder of the Top 10. As we saw above, Tesla (+81.1%) has a record month while MG (+82.4%) and DS (+9.2%) also impress further down.

We have an earthquake in the models ranking: as we predicted earlier in the month, the Tesla Model 3 (+55.8%) is the best-selling vehicle in Europe, ranking #1 in the UK and a close #2 to the VW Golf in Germany. In a sign of things to come, this is the first time a BEV tops the European charts but also the first time a model produced outside of Europe ranks #1. A caveat to this staggering performance is Tesla’s habit of very heavily backloading their sales towards end-of-quarter months, and it is the case even more this time with September accounting for 74% of the carmaker’s third quarter sales… For comparison, the Model 3 sold 636 units across Europe in July (#200), 7.827 in August (#18) and 24.591 in September (#1), or an average of 11.018 per month for the third quarter, a more realistic figure that would place it #17 in September.

The Renault Clio (-16.9%) rallies back up 9 spots on August to land in 2nd place for the month ahead of the Dacia Sandero (-8.9%) down two to #3 and outselling the VW Golf (-39.1%) for the third straight month. The Opel Corsa (-41%) is back up 18 ranks to #5, distancing the Fiat 500 (-14.3%), Peugeot 2008 (-16.9%) and Hyundai Tucson (+40%) notching a third consecutive and ever Top 10 finish at #8. The Peugeot 208 (-31.5%) and Renault Captur (-36.3%) round out the Top 10. Notice also the BMW 3 Series up 23.6% to be #16, the Opel Mokka up 20 spots on last month to #22, the BMW X3 up 29.1% to #27 and the Tesla Model Y up 48 ranks to #28.

Previous month: Europe August 2021: Toyota at #2, Hyundai at #5, market off -18.1%, Sandero repeats at #1

One year ago: Europe September 2020: First gain of the year (+1.1%) is optical illusion, VW ID.3 cracks Top 10 in 6 markets, wins 2

Full September 2021 Top 10 groups, Top 30 brands and Top 50 models below.

Europe September 2021 – groups (Source ACEA):

Pos	Group	Sep-21	/20	Aug	2021	/20	Pos	FY20
1	Volkswagen Group	207,428	-29.7%	1	2,371,441	8.8%	1	1
2	Stellantis	179,117	-30.4%	2	1,863,391	8.1%	2	2
3	Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi	126,398	-26.9%	3	1,055,603	-10.0%	3	3
4	Hyundai-Kia	108,344	6.9%	4	771,145	24.4%	4	5
5	BMW Group	68,420	-24.4%	6	661,291	9.8%	5	4
6	Toyota Group	66,113	-18.0%	5	600,662	19.5%	6	7
7	Daimler	45,811	-48.1%	7	506,254	-5.2%	7	6
8	Ford Motor	42,350	-46.7%	8	422,845	-12.1%	8	8
9	Tesla (est)	34,000	81.1%	n/a	113,386	76.4%	13	n/a
10	Suzuki (est)	19,900	-11.0%	9	155,792	28.4%	10	10

Europe September 2021 – brands:

Pos	Brand	Sep-21	/20	Aug	2021	/20	Pos	FY20
1	Volkswagen	91,147	-28.0%	1	1,028,648	7.8%	1	1
2	Toyota	60,387	-18.5%	2	562,824	20.2%	2	7
3	Renault	58,731	-30.1%	6	506,340	-13.5%	5	2
4	BMW	57,118	-16.8%	3	533,109	11.4%	4	5
5	Kia	56,090	8.1%	9	387,716	24.5%	10	14
6	Hyundai	52,254	5.7%	5	383,429	24.2%	11	13
7	Peugeot	48,877	-35.8%	10	558,408	5.9%	3	3
8	Mercedes	42,696	-49.9%	8	481,795	-7.3%	6	4
9	Ford	42,350	-46.7%	11	422,887	-11.3%	9	6
10	Audi	42,100	-31.3%	4	481,035	11.6%	7	9
11	Opel/Vauxhall	41,663	-24.6%	13	382,944	9.6%	12	11
12	Skoda	38,694	-40.1%	7	473,731	1.5%	8	8
13	Dacia	37,664	-13.6%	12	299,357	2.8%	16	15
14	Fiat	34,758	-35.5%	14	378,449	8.9%	13	10
15	Tesla (est)	34,000	81.1%	21	113,386	76.4%	22	25
16	Citroën	33,951	-24.0%	16	350,979	6.9%	14	12
17	Seat incl. Cupra	30,373	-17.3%	15	332,576	21.3%	15	16
18	Nissan	23,755	-34.2%	18	191,552	-9.9%	18	17
19	Suzuki (est)	19,900	-11.0%	17	155,792	28.4%	19	20
20	Volvo	18,235	-38.8%	19	218,490	10.1%	17	18
21	Mazda	17,960	-11.8%	20	124,460	18.1%	21	21
22	Mini	11,302	-48.2%	22	128,182	3.7%	20	19
23	Jeep	10,512	-28.0%	23	102,871	22.1%	23	22
24	Land Rover	10,046	-40.7%	26	92,616	12.0%	24	23
25	MG (est)	7,500	82.4%	27	31,811	94.4%	30	34
26	Mitsubishi	5,862	-35.1%	25	55,659	-32.1%	25	24
27	Lexus	5,726	-11.2%	29	37,838	9.4%	28	28
28	Porsche	4,594	-17.9%	28	51,454	1.1%	27	27
29	Honda	4,550	-27.8%	24	51,887	-11.0%	26	26
30	DS	3,789	9.2%	30	31,347	2.8%	32	31

Europe September 2021 – models:

Pos	Model	Sep-21	/20	Aug	2021	/20	Pos	FY20
1	Tesla Model 3	24,591	55.8%	18	99,419	78.1%	22	42
2	Renault Clio	18,264	-16.9%	11	146,606	-19.6%	4	2
3	Dacia Sandero	17,988	-8.9%	1	148,524	23.2%	3	11
4	VW Golf	17,507	-39.1%	2	176,052	-13.0%	1	1
5	Opel/Vauxhall Corsa	15,502	-41.0%	23	142,955	1.8%	7	4
6	Fiat 500	15,043	-14.3%	7	124,876	27.1%	10	18
7	Peugeot 2008	14,931	-16.9%	22	141,710	37.0%	8	14
8	Hyundai Tucson	14,088	40.0%	9	113,004	68.0%	15	38
9	Peugeot 208	13,895	-31.5%	17	145,583	3.1%	5	3
10	Renault Captur	13,715	-36.3%	12	124,870	-0.2%	11	7
11	Toyota Yaris	13,681	-21.3%	3	157,226	29.5%	2	6
12	Citroen C3	13,521	-13.7%	27	123,762	16.3%	12	16
13	Toyota Corolla	12,648	-22.6%	8	108,771	7.7%	19	20
14	Dacia Duster	12,429	-18.0%	4	109,616	11.1%	18	19
15	VW Polo	12,399	-34.5%	6	122,009	-2.7%	13	10
16	BMW 3 Series	11,303	23.6%	13	96,770	18.3%	23	24
17	Hyundai Kona	10,763	-31.4%	21	82,728	-3.7%	28	22
18	Kia Niro	10,408	-6.2%	29	66,609	19.6%	40	48
19	Ford Puma	10,288	-42.6%	10	115,762	47.3%	14	25
20	Toyota RAV4	10,070	-3.6%	19	82,987	29.4%	27	37
21	VW T-Roc	9,978	-11.1%	5	143,803	28.6%	6	12
22	Opel/Vauxhall Mokka	9,699	323200.0%	42	46,688	222223.8%	62	333
23	VW T-Cross	9,396	-13.0%	20	101,541	24.6%	20	27
24	Nissan Qashqai	9,390	-45.1%	60	78,713	-20.9%	31	21
25	Ford Focus	9,251	-46.2%	61	64,943	-49.7%	42	9
26	Kia Sportage	9,029	9.0%	36	71,617	29.8%	35	63
27	BMW X3	9,003	29.1%	25	61,515	35.8%	44	68
28	Tesla Model Y	8,973	18212.2%	76	12,474	25357.1%	147	343
29	VW Tiguan	8,798	-44.9%	14	138,917	4.4%	9	8
30	Fiat Panda	8,676	-49.9%	57	101,471	2.2%	21	17
31	Peugeot 3008	8,610	-32.6%	24	109,873	21.4%	17	23
32	VW ID.3	8,321	-2.6%	16	52,274	533.6%	49	78
33	Toyota Aygo	8,254	-32.7%	32	69,257	12.8%	39	43
34	Kia Ceed	8,107	10.9%	38	51,834	-0.9%	50	56
35	Seat Leon	8,069	-38.4%	28	70,033	-12.1%	38	28
36	Toyota C-HR	7,671	-38.1%	26	83,376	7.7%	26	32
37	Mini Hatch	7,484	-45.5%	30	80,789	0.9%	30	29
38	Skoda Fabia	7,255	-27.8%	31	72,554	0.2%	34	35
39	Kia Picanto	7,177	15.4%	59	48,438	30.2%	54	90
40	Renault Arkana	6,971	new	53	22,583	new	113	–
41	Nissan Juke	6,944	-19.6%	87	47,389	13.4%	61	73
42	Suzuki Swift	6,877	-10.1%	48	49,650	36.6%	51	86
43	Volvo XC40	6,647	-49.4%	54	90,282	25.6%	24	30
44	Ford Kuga	6,621	-46.9%	33	81,869	47.0%	29	47
45	Renault Zoe	6,610	-40.1%	62	45,188	-28.5%	64	33
46	Citroen C4	6,534	2153.1%	47	47,944	15415.9%	56	247
47	Kia Stonic	6,438	27.2%	51	44,636	9.1%	66	85
48	Mercedes A Class	6,255	-69.4%	34	89,886	-21.5%	25	13
49	Hyundai i20	6,165	-18.1%	45	47,426	-2.8%	60	65
50	Seat Arona	6,164	-18.0%	55	71,581	19.0%	36	46

Source: ACEA, JATO Dynamics